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The dollar index continues to fall, gold breaks through 3680

Post time: 2025-09-16 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: The US dollar index continues to fall, and gold breaks through 3680". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On September 16, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.37. On Monday, traders were preparing for the Fed's rate cut this week and looking for clues to further rate cuts this year. The U.S. dollar index continued to fall during the day and eventually closed down 0.28% at 97.34. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.0440%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.5450%. Spot gold rose above $3,680 for the first time, setting a new record high, and finally closed up 0.98% to close at $3,678.89/oz; spot silver finally closed up 1.21% to $42.67/oz. Oil prices closed higher on Monday as Ukraine stepped up its crackdown on Russia's oil infrastructure. WTI crude oil finally closed up 1.09% at $63.27 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed up 0.91% at $67.48 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovers around 97.37. The immediate pressure in the U.S. bond market is reshaping the U.S. dollar path through policy expectations and external risks. Although the double squeeze between tax period and auction is a short-term phenomenon, coupled with the long closing of positions before the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, the overnight funds have been pushed to the corridor ceiling. This liquidity tightening is similar to the "pre-support" effect, supporting the strengthening of the US dollar in the short term, but it is also anchored by interest rate cuts and pricing. Technically, the successful testing of the 97.10–97.30 support level will open the way to test the next support level (located in the 96.40–96.55 range).

The dollar index continues to fall, gold breaks through 3680(图1)

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovered around 1.1760. Market participants disagree with the downgrade of France's sovereign credit rating, and political turmoil remains. However, the Fed's first rate cut in nine months puts downward pressure on the dollar. Today's schedule will include a speech by European Central Bank (ECB) member Jose Luis Escliva. In terms of data, traders will pay attention to inflation data in Italy, ZEW surveys in Germany and the euro zone, and industrial production data in the euro zone. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above resistance level 1.1785–1.1800, it will move to the next resistance level 1.1870–1.1885.

The dollar index continues to fall, gold breaks through 3680(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3599. The GBP/USD was again on Monday with a cautious bullish move, breaking through 1.3600 for the first time since July. The US dollar (USD) generally fell back at the beginning of a new trading week, with investors preparing for the key interest rate decisions the Federal Reserve is about to make. U.S. retail sales data for August will be released on Tuesday, but the overall impact may be curbed as the market focuses on the Fed's interest rate decision on Wednesday. Technically, if this attempt is successful, GBP/USD will move towards the next resistance level 1.3665–1.3680.

The dollar index continues to fall, gold breaks through 3680(图3)

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Tuesday, gold hovered around 3685.33. This trading day will release the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in August, www.vifu.netmonly known as "terrorist data", which needs to be paid attention to. Looking around the world, interest rate decisions will also be held this week by the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Norway. Although the UK and Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, analysts will closely monitor the Bank of England's plans to slow down its government bonds and the Bank of Japan's speeches, which may reveal clues about interest rate hikes for the rest of the year. Fitch lowered its sovereign credit rating to AA- on Friday due to the increased debt burden, but the euro was basically unaffected. NickRees, head of macro research at MonexEurope, believes the news has been digested in advance by the market. The "collective appearances" of this series of central bank meetings will provide gold with more uncertainty premiums, driving its attractiveness as a safe-haven asset.

The dollar index continues to fall, gold breaks through 3680(图4)

Technical: From a technical perspective, December gold futures bulls have strong advantages in the overall near-term technical level. The next upside price target for the bulls is to close above the strong resistance level of $3750 per ounce. ShortThe next near-term downside price target is to push futures prices below the strong technical support level of $3550 per ounce. The first resistance was $3,700/oz, followed by this week's contract high of $3,715.2/oz. The first support level is the overnight low of $3662.8/oz, followed by $3650/oz.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 63.06. This trading day will release the monthly retail sales rate in the United States in August, www.vifu.netmonly known as "terrorist data", which needs to be paid attention to. Looking around the world, interest rate decisions will also be held this week by the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada and the Bank of Norway. Although the UK and Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, analysts will closely monitor the Bank of England's plans to slow down its government bonds and the Bank of Japan's speeches, which may reveal clues about interest rate hikes for the rest of the year.

The dollar index continues to fall, gold breaks through 3680(图5)

Technical: Since the high oil price in June 2025 (triggered by the Israeli-Iran conflict), the price of US crude oil October futures contracts has always been in a triangle consolidation pattern. The price trend shows the typical consolidation characteristics of "highs move downward and lows move upward", and has never fallen below the key support level of US$61. If oil prices achieve an effective breakthrough of US$70.20, it will likely reverse the long-term trend and switch from the "consolidation and oscillation" stage to the "potential bullish reversal" stage. If oil prices are subject to OPECOPEC+ increasing crude oil supply as scheduled, oil prices fail to effectively maintain the support level of US$61 and will face pressure to retest the 2025 low point. The key support levels are: US$60.20, US$59.20, and US$58.00.

Forex market trading reminder on September 16, 2025

17:00 Eurozone September ZEW Economic Prosperity Index

17:00 Eurozone July Industrial Output Monthly Rate

20:30 Canadian August CPI Monthly Rate

20:30 US August Retail Sales Monthly Rate

20:30 US August Import Price Index Monthly Rate

21:15 US August Industrial Monthly rate of industrial output

22:00 US September NAHB Real Estate Market Index

22:00 US July www.vifu.netmercial inventory monthly rate

The next day 04:30 US to September 12th the week API crude oil inventory

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