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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: The Federal Reserve's September vote www.vifu.netmittee has settled, Wall Street sounds the alarm!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 16, during the Asian session on Tuesday, spot gold was trading around $3,680/ounce. Gold prices hit a new record high of $3,685.47/ounce on Monday. Thanks to the weakening of the US dollar and the decline in US Treasury yields, investors adjusted their positions before the key Fed meeting this week, which may set the tone for the rest of the year.
The dollar weakened across the board on Monday, with investors waiting for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts at this week's meeting, and U.S. President Trump once again called for an accelerated easing of monetary policy.
Trump called on Monday to Fed Chairman Powell to lower the benchmark interest rate "a greater extent", and he also mentioned the real estate market.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, traders have www.vifu.netpletely digested the expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Open Market www.vifu.netmittee (FOMC) meeting on September 16 and 17, and also believed that the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is about 5%. "What we're seeing is a broad lack of confidence, and traders are relatively more willing to wait and see, waiting for the results of Wednesday's FOMC meeting," said Michael Brown, a market analyst at London-based online broker Pepperstone. "At the same time, market trends may be driven primarily by position adjustments and will last about a day or two." The dollar index fell 0.4%, hitting a low of 97.273 in the past week.
The US dollar fell 0.2% against the yen to 147.335 yen; the euro rose 0.3% against the US dollar to 1.1771. Investors will analyze Fed policymakers' "dot map" forecasts and guidance given by Powell to judge the extent and steps of further policy easingCut.
The economic forecast and press conference may emphasize that this is an 'insurance' rate cut and the pace of easing policy will remain gradual," Nomura analysts said in a report on Monday.
Investors will also focus on interest rate decisions in Japan, the United Kingdom, Canada and Norway later this week.
Both the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, and analysts will focus on the Bank of England's plans to slow down its pace of government bond reductions, as well as the Bank of Japan's speeches that may provide clues about the possibility of interest rate hikes for the remainder of the year.
Fitch lowered France's sovereign credit rating late Friday over fears the government's debt burden continues to grow. The second largest economy in the euro zone lost its AA- rating. The euro was largely unaffected by the news on Monday.
Nick Rees, head of macro research at MonexEurope, said that the rating downgrade has been largely digested by the market in advance.
The data show that the speculative www.vifu.net long positions of the euro against the dollar continue to remain strong, rising to $18.4 billion in the week ended September 8, the most in nearly two years.
RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter said today that the central bank is "close to keep inflation at the target level" and that the risks surrounding the outlook now seem to be "balanced". She stressed that there are delays in the operation of monetary policy and must be forward-looking.
Hunt also pointed out that household spending has “recovered”, consumption shows signs of improvement, and wider positions “start to reverse.” She added that the RBA is monitoring the potential strength of consumer demand “very closely” as it tries to keep the economy close to full employment.
She explained that the July CPI results were partially affected by the rebate time, and core inflation seemed to be basically consistent with the forecast.
European Market
Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB Executive www.vifu.netmittee, said today that the eurozone economy showed resilience when fully employed, with interest rates "in a good position." She noted that strong household and business balance sheets, reduced uncertainty and fiscal expansion were the main support for domestic demand, offsetting the drag on weak www.vifu.net exports.
Schnabel downplayed concerns about China's export dumping, noting that there has been little evidence so far and that the transfer of inflation caused by the strengthening of the euro may remain "limited".
In her view, “the upside risk of inflation dominates”, with tariffs, service and food price stickiness, and expansionary fiscal policy being potential drivers.
In view of these circumstances, Schnabel said that monetary policy should be "stabilized", tolerating moderate deviations from the target, while preventing sustained upward risks.
The trade data in the euro zone in July was stable, with exports slightly increasing by 0.4% year-on-year to 251.5B euros, and imports increased by 3.1% year-on-year to 239.1B euros.This generated a surplus of 12.4B. Intra-Eurozone trade rose 1.9% year-on-year to 226.1B euros. These figures reflect the EU's continued reliance on internal demand to cushion weak global capital flows.
The EU overall performed weakly, with exports falling -0.5% year-on-year to 227.7B euros, while imports rose 1.2% year-on-year to 215.6B euros. The resulting 12.1B euro surplus remains positive, but highlights the relative drag on the external market. Internal EU trade performed stronger, up 2.9% year-on-year to 349.2B euros.
Bilateral trends show significant differences. EU exports to the United States fell -4.4% year-on-year, and exports to China fell -6.6% year-on-year, highlighting the pressure brought by global trade frictions. In contrast, exports to the UK increased by 2.9% year-on-year and exports to Switzerland increased by 9.4% year-on-year. In terms of imports, EU traffic from the United States increased by 10.7% year-on-year, traffic from China increased by 3.9% year-on-year, traffic from Switzerland increased by 6.8% year-on-year, and traffic from the United Kingdom increased by 0.6% year-on-year.
The United States plans to include more steel and aluminum derivatives in the scope of tariffs.
Trump called for www.vifu.netpanies not to force release quarterly reports, but should be changed to once every six months, and the Nasdaq CEO expressed support.
The United States plans to expand its strategic uranium reserves to reduce dependence on Russia and boost nuclear energy prospects.
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