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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Group]: The 11th U.S. Senate government shutdown vote failed, and concerns about bond violations triggered panic in the Vietnamese market." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On October 21, spot gold was trading around US$4,362/oz in the Asian market on Tuesday. Gold prices rebounded on Monday and once again hit a record high of US$4,381.29/oz. Thanks to expectations of further US interest rate cuts and continued demand for safe havens, the US Senate’s 11th vote on the appropriation bill has not yet passed. However, the government "shutdown" continues, while investors await upcoming trade negotiations and U.S. inflation data released this week; U.S. crude oil traded around $56.92 per barrel, with oil prices closing at the lowest level since early May on Monday as investors weighed the possibility of a global oversupply, plus trade tensions heightened concerns about an economic slowdown and weak energy demand.
The U.S. dollar edged higher against the yen on Monday as investors turned their attention to political developments in Japan and the euro zone, while U.S. credit risks continued to raise concerns.
The yen edged lower as hardline conservative Sanae Takaichi was all but certain to win a parliamentary vote and become Japan's first female prime minister.
The expectation that Sanae will take over as the new prime minister has triggered market concerns about potential fiscal expansion, which may further depress the yen. Lee Hardman, senior foreign exchange economist at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), said that market participants will pay close attention to what fiscal plans the new coalition government will propose. The dollar against the yen was at 150.710 yen, up 0.08%.
Bank of Japan review member Hajime Takada reiterated his support for resuming interest rate hikes on Monday. He voted against keeping interest rates unchanged in September, a move that provided some support for the yen. Japan's benchmark Nikkei closed up more than 3%, hitting a record high.
BoJThe bank will hold a policy meeting on October 30. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) shows that the market-implied probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points is 23%.
The euro edged higher against the dollar as political tensions in France eased, but investors remained cautious. Markets have not yet fully priced in France's political risk, with the government's decision to freeze pension reform providing only temporary breathing space. The euro was at $1.164 against the dollar, down 0.06%.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.053% to 98.587. The index hit 98.025 last Friday, the lowest since October 6. TradeNation senior market analyst David Morrison said in a report that the immediate danger seems to have passed, and investors believe that bankruptcies, bad debts and fraud charges are just isolated incidents and not systemic problems in the banking industry. Economists pointed out that the resilience of the US dollar will be tested in multiple aspects.
Klaus Baader, global chief economist at Societe Generale, said that first of all, the government shutdown is directly and indirectly damaging economic activity, and trade tensions are the second biggest concern. Third, the impact of enacted (import) tariffs continues to be felt, dragging down real household income growth and squeezing corporate profit margins.
Barclays Bank pointed out that since there are no obvious catalysts for the federal government shutdown to end in the next few weeks, the shutdown is likely to continue into November, when political and economic pressure will intensify.
On the 21st local time, Japan’s House of Representatives and Senate will hold prime minister nomination elections. Given that the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Reform Association have reached an agreement on a joint governance, and the opposition parties have not formed a unified candidate, there is a high probability that Sanae Takaichi, president of the Liberal Democratic Party, will serve as Japan's new prime minister and form a cabinet.
New Zealand again recorded a sizeable trade deficit in September 2025, with imports growing faster than exports despite strong overseas demand. Data from Statistics New Zealand showed that merchandise exports increased by 19% year-on-year to NZ$5.8B. Imports increased 1.6% year-on-year to NZ$7.2B. The result was a monthly deficit of NZD-1.4B, www.vifu.netpared with expectations of NZD-6B and NZD-1.2B last month.
Export strength is broad, with double-digit growth across all major partners. Shipments to China increased by 24% year-on-year, shipments to Australia increased by 28% year-on-year, shipments to Japan increased by 23% year-on-year, while sales to the United States and the European Union increased by 10% and 15% respectively.
In terms of imports, purchases from China increased by 16% year-on-year, while capital inflows from the EU and Australia increased by 7.3% and 6.4% respectively. Offsetting this, imports from the United States fell by -30% and South Korea by -4.8%.
The EU Council meeting was held in Luxembourg on the 20th, mainly discussing the latest situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Regarding key issues such as a new round of sanctions against Russia and how to use Russia's frozen assets to support Ukraine, the parties have not reached a new consensus. In addition, some EU member states expressed dissatisfaction with the meeting between US and Russian leaders in Budapest, the capital of Hungary, and considered it "unbelievable" to invite Russian leaders to Europe. On the same day, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated on social media that a meeting between the leaders of the United States and Russia in Budapest was in Hungary’s interests. But he stressed that Hungary would not invite EU leaders who are "mainly fighting" to participate.
On October 17, S&P Global Ratings downgraded France's long-term and short-term sovereign credit ratings in foreign and local currencies from "AA-/A-1+" to "A+/A-1", with a stable outlook. This is the second sovereign international rating agency to downgrade France in recent times. On September 12, Fitch also downgraded France's sovereign rating to "A+" with a stable outlook. Bloomberg analysis said that France's loss of double-A ratings from two major international credit rating www.vifu.netpanies may force some funds with extremely strict investment standards to sell French bonds.
The "shutdown" of the U.S. federal government is approaching three weeks. On October 20, local time, the U.S. National Nuclear Security Administration, a key agency responsible for the management of U.S. nuclear weapons storage, began to furlough most employees. This is the first time the agency has encountered such a situation since its establishment.
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