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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Analysis]: The US government continues to be shut down, and a large number of Democratic Party projects will be frozen." Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On October 20, spot gold was trading around US$4,268/oz in the Asian market on Monday. The price of gold dropped by nearly 2% after hitting a record high of US$4,379.38/oz last Friday. Suppressed by the strength of the US dollar and US President Trump’s tariff remarks, Trump Trump's tariff tone has softened; U.S. crude oil is trading around $57.17/barrel. U.S. oil hit a low since early May on Friday to $56.15/barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a growing supply glut and U.S. President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to meet again to discuss the Ukraine issue.
The dollar rose on Friday but posted weekly losses against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen last week on worries about trade tensions and jitters at some regional U.S. banks. The U.S. federal government shutdown has also hampered the release of key macroeconomic data, leaving investors with less certainty than usual about economic conditions.
Standard Chartered Bank's global head of G10 foreign exchange research Steve Englander said that there was some safe-haven selling in the U.S. dollar. In addition, news about regional banks and broader credit also suppressed the U.S. dollar to a certain extent.
The dollar fell to its weakest level against the Swiss franc in a month, while the yen erased earlier gains after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda discussed factors that could lead to a rate hike this month.
USD/CHF fell 0.08% to 0.7925, falling to its lowest level since mid-September and recording its largest weekly decline since June. Amo Sahota, director of KlarityFX in San Francisco, said the market's reaction to this week is that the U.S. government has been closed for 17 days and we missed the initial jobless claims and employment numbers.According to -- we were flying with limited visibility, the Fed felt that way, and then, as trade tensions escalated, even though Trump tried to calm things down, I believe it was all game theory and negotiation tactics. "
St. Louis Federal Reserve President Mussallem said on Friday that he may support a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at the end of this month, but warned that the Fed should not go too far in reducing credit costs because the risk of inflation has not yet been www.vifu.netpletely eliminated.
The euro fell 0.17% against the dollar to $1.16678, its highest level in nine weeks The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the U.S. dollar against six currencies, fell 0.43% last week, but rose 0.17% to 98.43 on the day.
A senior www.vifu.netmittee member said on Friday that Japan’s House of Representatives Schedule www.vifu.netmittee has agreed to hold a parliamentary vote on October 21 to elect the next prime minister. Since Sanae Ichi was elected leader of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party, the yen has been on the defensive. USD/JPY was flat at 150.49 yen in late New York trade, recording a weekly loss.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said in Washington last Thursday that the central bank is still prepared to raise interest rates if the likelihood of economic growth and price forecasts increasing.
The latest data released by Statistics New Zealand on Monday showed that New Zealand’s consumer price index (CPI) increased by 3.0% year-on-year in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025, while the increase in the second quarter was 2.7%. The market consensus is for growth of 3.0% during the reporting period. The quarterly CPI inflation rate in the third quarter increased from the previous 0. 5% rose to 1.0%.
China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), announced on Monday that it would keep the loan prime rate (LPR) unchanged. The 1-year and 5-year LPRs are 3.00% and 3.50% respectively.
Official data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Monday showed that China’s annual economic growth rate in the third quarter (Q3) of 2025 was 4.8%, www.vifu.netpared with 5.2% in the second quarter. This figure is in line with market consensus.
On a quarterly basis, China's gross domestic product (GDP) rate increased by 1.1% in the third quarter after growing by 1.1% in the previous quarter, which was higher than the market consensus of 0.8%.
China’s full-year retail sales in June Growth was 3.0%, expected to be 2.9%, the previous value was 3.4%, industrial production was 6.5%, expected to be 5.0%, August was 5.2%.
At the same time, fixed asset investment fell by 0.5% year-on-year in September, with an expected increase of 0.2% and a 0.5% increase in the previous value.
Bank of England chief economist Hugh Peel said on Friday that Britain's inflation remains stickier than expected, reinforcing the case for slowing the pace of monetary easing.
In a speech, Peel said the "lack of progress" in reducing inflation was "disappointing". He warned that persistently above-target inflation, coupled with business and household concerns about price trends,Increased sensitivity to inflationary trends could create "self-sustaining inflationary dynamics." The salience of food prices has a direct impact on households' perceptions of inflation and, if not carefully managed, may further embed inflation expectations.
He believes this requires "a more cautious pace in removing monetary policy restrictions to ensure that deflation continues to move towards the 2% target. While Peel reiterated that if the outlook develops as expected, a rate cut in the www.vifu.neting year is still possible, he emphasized that" The importance of guarding against the risk of cutting interest rates too quickly or too quickly.
Inflation in the Eurozone edged higher in September, with overall CPI finally rising by 2.2% year-on-year, up from 2.0% in August. Core indicators excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco also increased from 2.3% % rose to 2.4%.
The main driver of growth www.vifu.netes from the service industry, which contributes +1.49 percentage points to the annual growth rate, followed by food, alcohol and tobacco (+0.58 percentage points) and non-energy industrial products (+0.20 percentage points). Energy continued to be a drag, falling -0.03 percentage points.
Across the EU, annual inflation was finalized at 2.6% year-on-year, up from 2.4% in August, with wide differences between member states. Cyprus (0.0%), France (1.1 %) and Italy and Greece (1.8%) have the lowest rates, while Romania (8.6%), Estonia (5.3%) and Croatia and Slovakia (4.6%) have the highest rates. Inflation rates fell in eight countries, were stable in four and increased in 15 countries.
Trump signed an executive order to impose a 25% tariff on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks.
Trump: The United States may not provide "Tomahawk" to Ukraine; the meeting with Putin will be a "bilateral meeting"
Federal Reserve Moussalem: If there are more risks to employment and inflation is under control, I may support the path of another interest rate cut.
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