The Australian dollar has finished making profits, and the mysterious indicators suggest that the Australian dollar continues to be bullish?

XM Foreign Exchange APP News - On Monday (September 15), the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting, the Australian dollar remained firmly up 0.18% against the US dollar during the European session, trading around 0.6658, and the Australian dollar against the US dollar exchange rate remained in a few months high range. Large speculators on the position side reduced short orders and asset management www.vifu.netpanies expanded shorts expressed their differences on the Australian dollar trend, but the market's bet on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and risk reversal recently released consumer confidence data showed that consumer confidence fell more than market expectations and fell to a four-month low. Among them, the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index fell from 58.2 last month to 55.4, far lower than the market consensus estimate of 58.0. Judging from consumer feedback, rising prices have prompted them to reduce consumption behavior, and the reduction in consumption has put pressure on economic growth. 60% of respondents clearly listed trade tariffs as the core concern; although short-term inflation expectations remain stable, the market's expectations of further increase in long-term price pressure has not changed. The above data www.vifu.netbined with moderate inflation data released earlier in the week basically confirms that the Fed will implement a 25 basis point rate cut on Wednesday, and is likely to release a loose signal in interest rate expectations and Powell's speech - this result will create clear negative pressure on the US dollar and support the Australian dollar's trend. The decision-making logic of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and political pressure to consider the deterioration of employment data could have been a reasonable basis for this measure, but judging from the central bank's decision-making logic, the Federal Reserve may have implemented a 25 basis point interest rate cut due to policy consistency and the face of the central bank. It should be noted that Powell is currently facing political pressure from the Trump administration - if interest rate cuts by 50 basis points, it may not only confirm the president's view that the Fed's easing pace is too slow", but may also trigger unnecessary panic in the market; and 25 basis pointsThe rate cut of the point can not only make the Fed fit the external image of its policy tone, but also maintain its decision-making independence. The Australian dollar futures position - The COTReport shows that there are differences between institutions, but in the end, the Australian dollar futures position only adjusted slightly. Large speculators have reduced their www.vifu.net short positions for the second consecutive week, reducing their size to 3,500 contracts. The segmented data shows that long contracts have increased by 2,500 (8.5%) and short contracts have decreased by 1,000 (0.8%). Asset management www.vifu.netpanies expanded their www.vifu.net short positions by 2,300 contracts. Specifically, long contracts increased by 398 (1% increase), but short contracts increased by more significant, reaching 2,700 (2.5% increase). It should be noted that the position data only covered last Tuesday and was not included in the market that pushed the Australian dollar to rise 1.3% against the US dollar due to the weakening of the US dollar. Therefore, the current AUD www.vifu.net short position has likely further contracted. The options market and implicit volatility support the exchange rate. The performance of the options market also supports this judgment: the risk reversal options for the 1-week and 1-month period rise simultaneously with the spot exchange rate, confirming the market's bullish tendency. It should be noted that although the Australian dollar-USD risk reversal options are still in the negative range (i.e., from the absolute scale, put options (short bets) are still more than call options (buy bets), the upward trend shows that the demand for call options is gradually increasing in relative terms. The implicit volatility and risk reversal of the Australian dollar against the US dollar have supported the Australian dollar's rise in recent months. The continued decline in the implicit volatility of the Australian dollar against the US dollar suggests that the market has a good acceptance of the decline of the Australian dollar. Although this trend may strengthen the market's www.vifu.netplacency with long trading in the Australian dollar and put the Australian dollar at risk of sudden shocks, it provides the basis for the upward trend of the Australian dollar from the current trend. Under the Bank of Canada's easing expectations of the Australian dollar against the Bank of Canada (BoC) under the Bank of Canada's easing expectations, the Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar bull target is at the 0.94 mark. The market's expectations for the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut of 25 basis points are also strong. The weak employment data in July and August further strengthened this logic, and the probability of interest rate cuts implicitly in swap contracts has reached 84%. If the Bank of Canada releases loose guidance in this resolution, the Australian dollar against the Canadian dollar may push the exchange rate to break through the previous fluctuation range and launch an impact on the 0.94 mark. The Australian dollar against the US dollar AUD longs reached a breakthrough last week at a ten-month high of 0.6624. From the technical perspective, this breakthrough was formed after a few weeks of retracement with a shallow amplitude, which shows that it may be in the early stages of the next upward trend. Although the short-term bullish structure is clear, bulls need to focus on the key 0.6652 mark - the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) and the exponential moving average (EMA) intersect and superimpose here, which is likely to constitute a key short-term resistance. Any subsequent pullback is likely to not be too deep, and market buying may take the opportunity to intervene at a low level, pushing the Australian dollar against the US dollar to gradually approach the weekly volume-intensive area. As long as the price continues to stabilize above the low point of 0.6580, the overall pattern will remain bullish;At the same time, the July high (0.6624) also simultaneously constitutes short-term support. If the price can continue to break through and stand firm above 0.6677, it will open upward space for the Australian dollar to rise to the 0.6900 mark against the US dollar and the 2024 high (0.6942). (Australia dollar against the US dollar weekly chart, source: Yihuitong) 18:40 Beijing time, the Australian dollar against the US dollar is currently at 0.6658/57.

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