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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's resolution, analysis of the short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 15". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose, Dow futures rose 0.12%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.19%, and Nasdaq futures rose 0.14%. The German DAX index rose 0.53%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.04%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.22%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.87%.
⑴ The market generally expects the U.S. Federal Open Market www.vifu.netmittee (FOMC) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on Wednesday. Fund futures show that the probability of interest rate cuts is as high as 97%. At the same time, the market focus is on Chairman Powell's statement on the future path to interest rate cuts, although there are signs that his "patience" strategy is facing objections, especially after the Senate may approve Trump's nominee Stephan Miran into the Federal Reserve, his attitude towards interest rate policy is particularly critical. ⑵ Many central banks will announce interest rate decisions this week. The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.50%, the Bank of England may remain unchanged by 4.00%, and the Bank of Japan is also expected to remain unchanged by 0.50%. These decisions will provide important guidance for the direction of global monetary policy. ⑶ In terms of economic data, a series of important data releases will be received this week, including the US Empire Manufacturing Index in September (expected value is 5.0, the previous value is 11.9), retail sales, import prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, as well as new home construction and construction permits, etc. These data will provide a basis for evaluating the economic prosperity.according to. ⑷ It is worth noting that despite optimism, negative news from China cannot be ignored. Factory output and retail sales data in September were weak, recording year-on-year growth of 5.2% and 3.4%, respectively, which was far lower than market expectations. At the same time, preliminary surveys showed that Nvidia may have violated antitrust laws in an acquisition transaction. This news www.vifu.netes at the time of Sino-US trade negotiations, increasing market uncertainty. ⑸ At the trading level, the current 10-year US Treasury yield is hovering around 4.060%. After experiencing recent volatility, the market shows momentum to buy on dips, but the changes in the slope of the curve and the changes in volatility indicate that market sentiment still needs to be further clarified.
Michelle, an analyst at Rothschild Asset Management? Michael Nizard said in the report that there was no panic in the bond market's response to Fitch's rating downgrade in France. The head of the multi-asset and superposition strategy department pointed out that the recent rise in France's 10-year treasury bond yields is due to investors' concerns whether France can implement measures to reduce its fiscal deficit and demand a higher risk premium; but the current yield is still far lower than the level during the sovereign debt crisis. He said: "Most investors still believe that French bonds have excellent quality."
⑴ Data shows that the Dutch 30-year treasury bonds show a "high" trend www.vifu.netpared with the German treasury bonds for the same period after adjusting for the difference in trends. According to the regression analysis of the three-month constant-duration yield, the yield of the Dutch 30-year treasury bond is 4.7 basis points higher than the beta-adjusted German treasury bond, which is equivalent to 2.8 standard deviations. ⑵ This deviation in the yield curve may reflect different market assessments of the two countries' sovereign debt risks and liquidity premiums. While Dutch Treasury bonds are often seen as safe assets, a relatively higher yield rate may mean that investors have increased their preference for them or believe that there is more room for upside in the future. ⑶ When evaluating the European bond market, investors need to pay close attention to subtle changes in such yield curves. The "rich" performance of the Dutch 30-year government bonds www.vifu.netpared to Germany may provide a new perspective for traders seeking arbitrage opportunities or hedging risks, but they also need to be wary of their potential volatility.
⑴ Data shows that India's www.vifu.netmodity trade deficit narrowed to US$26.49 billion in August, down from US$27.35 billion in July. Although US President Trump's tariff remarks have caused market concerns, causing exports to the United States to drop to a nine-month low of $35.1 billion, the slowdown in import growth has offset this impact to some extent. ⑵ Specifically, after the United States imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, India's exports to the United States fell from US$8.01 billion in July to US$6.86 billion in August. This tariff makes it possibleExporters face a total tax burden of up to 50%, making them one of the highest among the U.S. trading partners. ⑶ Although this trade negotiation may be difficult to achieve substantial breakthroughs, representatives of both sides will hold talks on Tuesday. Indian officials said that in order to cope with the impact of tariffs, they are actively expanding to emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa to partially offset the risk of declining consumption capacity in the US market.
⑴ Global logistics and real estate giant Prologis is financing its corporate operations by issuing new bonds. The www.vifu.netpany plans to issue two batches of bonds, respectively, with each estimated size of 500 million euros. The specific pricing guidance for this issuance shows that the interest rate guidance range for 7-year bonds is MS+95 basis points, while for 12-year bonds are MS+125 basis points. ⑵ The issuance of these two bonds is scheduled to be settled on September 22, of which the 7-year bond will mature on September 22, 2032, and the 12-year bond will mature on September 22, 2037. The purpose of this financing is to provide general corporate-purpose funds to Prous and its subsidiaries and may be used to repay existing debts. ⑶Pros' bond issuance ratings are Moody's A2 and Standard & Poor's A respectively, showing its solid financial strength. The funds raised will be mainly used in general corporate affairs, including repayment of other debts, which indicates that the www.vifu.netpany is maintaining its operations and financial health by optimizing its debt structure.
⑴ The Norwegian Central Bank has lowered the key interest rate from 4.5% to 4.25% in June, and has sent a long-term signal that it will gradually cut interest rates. However, some institutions believe that apart from previous signals, the Norwegian central bank had no other reason to cut interest rates this Thursday. ⑵The prospect of the Norwegian central bank's interest rate cut is facing challenges. Although its forecast for interest rate cuts is based on monetary policy that is curbing economic activity, some institutions have questioned this assumption. Meanwhile, Norwegian economy has rebounded strongly after two years of moderate growth. ⑶ In addition, Norway's inflation rate is also far higher than the 2% target, which further weakens the rationale for interest rate cuts. Despite the great uncertainty over whether the Norwegian central bank will take action, institutions generally believe that it will keep interest rates unchanged this week.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1767, an increase of 0.28%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (Euro-USD) price rose on the last trading day, breaking through the resistance level of 1.1730, supported by its continued trading above the EMA50, and dominated by bullish trends and trading along the bias line, besides positive signals on the relative strength indicators, despite reaching an overbought level, strengthening the recent increase on the basis.
GBP/USD: DeadlineAt 20:23 Beijing time, pound/USD rose and is now at 1.3611, an increase of 0.37%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fluctuated at its last intraday level, trying to build up its positive power that could help it break through the key resistance level of 1.3585, supported by the emergence of bullish signals on the (RSI), after it successfully unloaded its overbought conditions, opening the way for new gains, especially with the continued positive signals trading above the EMA50, and dominated by bullish trends and their trading along the slashes on a short-term basis.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell, now at 3638.47, a drop of 0.14%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price rose on the last trading day, supported by its movement above the EMA50, and dominated the bullish trend and traded along a small slash in the short term. In addition, after successfully getting rid of the overbought conditions, positive signals appeared in the relative strength indicators, opening up the way for more returns.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell, now at 42.038, a drop of 0.35%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price rose on the last trading day, supported by overbought conditions on the unloading relative strength indicators, opening the way to target new levels of resistance, especially with the advent of positive signals from there, dominated by major bullish trends on a short-term basis, and along supportive slashes.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 62.920, an increase of 0.38%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, crude oil prices fell on an intraday basis in recent trading as the resistance at $62.85 remained stable, accompanied by exposure to the EMA50 resistance, exacerbating negative pressure, with major bearish trends dominated in the short term and trading with deviation lines that reduce the price recovery opportunities.
In addition to the 25 basis points rate cut on Wednesday, as the market generally expects, Fed officials may also include the plan to include at least another interest rate cut before the end of the year. Goldman Sachs analyst David Mericle said the latest Fed release of the latest "The dot chart shows that officials' median expectation is a cumulative interest rate cut in 2025, and this time it is likely to maintain this level. He pointed out that inflation is still a thorny issue, but the urgency of the labor market has risen. Mericle also said that the Fed chairman may not directly promise a rate cut in October at a press conference: "However, Chairman Powell may tactfully suggest this direction at the press conference. ”
Deutsche Bank credit strategists said in a report that in the past four months, the proportion of credit ratings downgraded in European corporate bonds has exceeded the proportion of ratings upgraded. Strategists pointed out that this trend is not driven by the increase in the number of corporate bonds downgraded, but is caused by the decrease in the number of ratings upgraded. They also mentioned that since April, there has been almost no total amount of European corporate bonds facing high risk of rating downgraded. Changes are still maintained at around 20 billion euros.
The above content is all about "[XM official website]: The market is waiting for the Federal Reserve's resolution, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 15", which was carefully www.vifu.netpiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for your support!
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