A collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market

In the www.vifu.netplex and changing pattern of the foreign exchange market, various daily news are like the rotation of the weather vane, which profoundly affects the trend of the currency and the decisions of investors. On July 3, 2025, many factors were intertwined, bringing a series of positive and negative news to the foreign exchange market.

Favorite news

1. Citi predicts that poor non-agricultural data may lead to a sell-off in the US dollar

The research report of Citi Global Foreign Exchange Strategy Team pointed out that the US dollar currently has significant asymmetric risks, that is, when the non-agricultural data is less than expected, the decline of the US dollar is greater than the increase when the data is better than expected. In its forecast for the upcoming non-farm employment report, the unemployment rate may climb to 4.4%, with only 85,000 new jobs being created. If this data becomes a reality, it is very likely to trigger a widespread US dollar sell-off, which undoubtedly provides upside space for other currencies. The yen, Swiss franc and euro are expected to be the main beneficiaries, especially the euro. The exchange rate against the US dollar may usher in an opportunity to rise when the US dollar weakens. However, Citi also mentioned that non-farm data alone may not be enough to push the euro to break through the key 1.20 mark against the US dollar.

2. my country's foreign exchange field reform and opening-up measures are frequently launched. Zhu Hexin, Vice President of the People's Bank of China and Director of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum that it is firmly promoting in-depth reform and high-level opening-up in the foreign exchange field. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange publicly solicited opinions on the "Notice on Deepening the Reform of Foreign Exchange Management of Cross-border Investment and Financing (Draft for www.vifu.netments)" and proposed 9 policies to deepen the reform of cross-border financing foreign exchange management to further improve the convenience of cross-border investment and financing. In supporting the development of foreign trade enterprises, we will deepen the reform of trade foreign exchange business management and implement a number of facilitation policies; in promoting the facilitation of cross-border investment and financing,The country has implemented a number of support policies and promoted the integrated fund pool policy of multinational corporations in domestic and foreign currencies. These measures are conducive to attracting foreign investment, promoting cross-border capital flows, enhancing the attractiveness of RMB assets, and playing a positive role in stabilizing the RMB exchange rate. At the same time, the two-way fluctuations and elasticity of the RMB exchange rate have increased since the beginning of this year. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by 1.6%, which is generally stable against a basket of currencies, showing that my country's foreign exchange market is generally stable under a www.vifu.netplex situation, and has injected confidence into the foreign exchange market.

3. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued a batch of QDII quotas

The State Administration of Foreign Exchange has issued a total of US$3.08 billion to some qualified domestic institutional investors (QDIIs) with a total investment amount of US$3.08 billion, aiming to further support QDII institutions to carry out cross-border investment business in accordance with the law and to meet the reasonable foreign investment needs of domestic residents in an orderly manner on the premise of effectively preventing risks. This measure will help promote the rational cross-border flow of capital, optimize domestic and foreign asset allocation, and enhance the activity and stability of the foreign exchange market.

Bold news

1. The US "Big and US" bill may impact the Philippine foreign exchange market

According to Philippine media reports, the Philippine Presidential Office spokesman Castro quoted a statement from the Philippine Ministry of Finance that if the US "Big and US" bill is approved by the US Congress, it is expected that overseas Filipino labor remittances will be reduced by US$100 million in 2026, a decrease of 0.3%, equivalent to 0.003% of the Philippines' GDP. Some economists said that the decline in overseas Filipino remittances will lead to a shrinking Philippine foreign exchange reserves, limiting the Philippine central bank's ability to interfere in the money market, and may lead to further depreciation of the peso, thereby adversely affecting peso-related transactions in the foreign exchange market.

2. Global central banks have strengthened their de-dollarization trend.

Surveys of 75 central banks show that they hope to adjust their fund allocation, abandon the dollar, and turn to gold and the euro. Between March and May, the official Forum of Monetary and Financial Institutions (OMFIF) survey of 75 central banks showed that the tariff policies implemented by US President Trump on April 2 have caused the prices of US dollar and US bonds to fall, prompting central banks around the world to re-examine the flow of funds. 40% of central banks plan to increase their holdings of gold over the next decade, and 70% of central banks surveyed said that the political situation in the United States made it afraid to invest in the US dollar. The euro is expected to benefit the most from the decline of the dollar, with 16% of central banks surveyed planning to increase their euro reserves in the next 12 to 24 months. The US dollar's share of global foreign exchange reserves has dropped from more than 70% in 1999 to 57.3% in 2023, a record low. The current share of US dollar in global foreign exchange reserves has dropped to 46%. This de-dollarization trend may impact the US dollar's position in the international monetary system, affecting the demand and trend of the US dollar in the foreign exchange market.

3. Risks in Argentina's foreign exchange market have risen

Argentina's economy is turbulent due to both domestic and foreign pressures. The U.S. tariffs have lowered the export prices of Argentina's www.vifu.netmodities, weak foreign demand, and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar has exacerbated local economic uncertainty. ArgentinaNegotiating a new financial aid agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may bring funds, but the loan interest burden has increased. The "Market Expectation Survey" released by the Argentina Central Bank shows that economists predict that the official wholesale dollar exchange rate will rise sharply by the end of 2025, and the futures market implies that the dollar's increase may be close to 40% for the whole year. The current exchange rate policy has shown signs of fatigue, which may aggravate reserve loss and market turmoil. This not only affects the performance of Argentina's domestic currency peso in the foreign exchange market, but also causes certain interference to the stability of the global foreign exchange market due to factors such as market risk aversion.

In general, the foreign exchange market faced a fierce game between long and short news on July 3. Investors need to pay close attention to the release of subsequent non-agricultural data, the further direction of policies of various countries, and changes in geopolitical factors, in order to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner and respond to the changes in the foreign exchange market.

The above content is all about "【XM Forex】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". It was carefully www.vifu.netpiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: