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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: ADP is exploding to the US dollar's sell-off, and the short-term trend analysis of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on July 2." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
The three major U.S. stock index futures rose and fell mixed, Dow futures rose 0.19%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.10%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.01%. The German DAX index rose 0.17%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.25%, the French CAC40 index rose 1.08%, and the European Stoke 50 index rose 0.53%.
British Chancellor Reeves seemed upset in the House of www.vifu.netmons this afternoon, but Downing Street insisted that she "would not go anywhere." A spokesman for British Prime Minister Stamer added that Reeves “had not proposed resignation.” This www.vifu.netes after the government's welfare bill was first passed in the House of www.vifu.netmons on Tuesday, with its huge concessions likely to cost the Treasury millions of dollars. Meanwhile, a spokesman for Chancellor Reeves said she was upset about a “private thing.”
U.S. mortgage rates fell to the lowest since early April last week, boosting the accelerated recovery of housing refinancing applications. The contract interest rate for 30-year fixed mortgages fell by 9 basis points to 6.79% in the week ending June 27, data released by the American Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) showed on Wednesday. Interest rates on 15-year mortgages fell to 6.06%, the fourth consecutive week of decline. The association's mortgage refinancing metrics rose 6.5%, reaching its highest since the week of April 11.
Led by California, 20 U.S. states collectively filed a lawsuit in the federal district court of the Northern District of California on the 1st, accusing the Trump administration’s Department of Health and Human Services of providing patient personal data under the “Medicaid Program” to the Department of Homeland Security for violations of the law. In the 59-page indictment, 20 state attorneys general jointly alleged that under the Congressional Act and other relevant laws that set up the Medicaid program, personal data in this universal health system is confidential and can only be shared in favor of public health and certain specific circumstances. However, according to media reports, the Department of Homeland Security has no restrictions on access to the data managed by the Department of Health and Human Services and plans to use this data to build a database for "massive deportation" and other immigration enforcement efforts.
1. Reuters survey showed that 10 of the 11 economists expected the Israeli central bank to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.5% at its July 7 meeting, and only one person predicted a 25 basis point cut to 4.25%. In May, inflation fell unexpectedly to 3.1% (still above the target range of 1-3%), but the minutes of the central bank's May meeting emphasized the upward risks of inflation, and the Policy www.vifu.netmittee unanimously decided not to cut interest rates for the time being. 3. The Israeli-Iran conflict that broke out on June 13 quickly ended, Israel claimed a decisive victory, the Iranian nuclear threat was lifted in the short term, and the geopolitical risk premium fell significantly: Israeli Shekel appreciated about 8% against the US dollar since the conflict; the 5-year CDS spread fell to 86 basis points (122 basis points before the war), the lowest since March. 4. Analysts believe that the risk premium has decreased andExchange rate appreciation has met the prerequisites for interest rate cuts: Katz, chief economist at LeaderCapital, bluntly stated: "The risk premium has dropped sharply, why not cut interest rates? Even if it drops to 4.25%, monetary policy is still restrictive." Bahar, an economist at the National Bank of Israel, said: "The central bank has basically www.vifu.netpleted all the conditions for interest rate cuts, but may hope to see further stabilization of the situation. The interest rate cut on August 20 is more realistic." 5. In terms of economic fundamentals, Israel's GDP grew by 3.7% annually in the first quarter, and it is expected to rebound rapidly after a brief drag on conflict in the second quarter, providing support for the shift in monetary policy.
Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD fell and is now at 1.1780, a drop of 0.22%. Before the New York Stock Exchange (Euro-USD) rose on the last trading day, using a calm correction trend that led to its recovery from its previous gains, opening the way for the bullish momentum needed to continue to rise. This recovery is backed by the apparently overbought conditions of (RSI), opening the way for more gains without the strong technical pressure that could hinder its tracks.
GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD fell and is now at 1.3650, a drop of 0.68%. Before the New York Stock Market, the (GBPUSD) price stabilized at high levels in the last intraday trading after it successfully gained the positive momentum needed to recover and successfully got rid of the apparent overbought state of (RSI), and began to show positive overlapping signals, with the main bullish trend dominating in the short term and trading along a slash, with positive support continuing as it traded above the EAM50.
Spot gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold rose, now at 3347.73, an increase of 0.27%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (gold) price fell on the last trading day, which is a revised natural trend aimed at collecting previous returns, and the price rebounds and lowers to test the dynamic support represented by the EMA50, which remains an important technical pillar of short-term price trends.
Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver rose, now at 36.320, an increase of 0.86%. Before the New York market, the (silver) price rose on the last trading day because it relies on support from the secondary bullish trend line on a short-term basis, providing bullish momentum in an attempt to surpass the negative pressure of the EMA50, which occurs when (RSI) reaches the price trend.Compared with the exaggerated oversold level, the road is opened to achieve more profits.
Crude oil market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil rose, now at 66.210, an increase of 1.16%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, (crude oil) maintained a narrow range of fluctuations between the $65.56 resistance and $63.70 support, indicating that the market is in a state of chaos and expectations, waiting for new motivations to push prices to break through this range.
CITIC Macro analyst Thomas Mathews said in a report that despite the strong performance of the US Treasury bonds recently, it is expected to be difficult for the rest of the year. “The weeks-long rally in U.S. Treasury bonds appear to have been suspended,” Mathews said. The remarks made by Fed Chairman Powell at a meeting in Sintra, Portugal appear to be a factor in the suspension of the rally. Powell said that as long as the economy is stable, there will be no rush to cut interest rates. "In our case, we doubt whether the Fed will get the evidence needed to cut interest rates by next year, and whether it will succumb to political pressure," he said. Capita Macro expects the Fed to cut interest rates by next year.
ANZ pointed out that the ECB cut interest rates by 200 basis points in the past 12 months, making great progress in the easing cycle, and the bank may be close to the interest rate trough. We expect the ECB to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points to 1.75% in September. European Central Bank President Lagarde said that monetary policy is in a good state and is not on the preset route. According to our estimates, the current neutral range of the European Central Bank policy interest rate is 1.50%-2.50%. Currently, the deposit rate of 2.0% is in the median range. We expect the euro zone to grow weakly in the next few quarters, and the ECB will ensureHold on to a loose policy.
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