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Small non-agricultural markets were "shocked" in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly

Post time: 2025-07-03 views

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Small non-agricultural market "shocked" in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On July 3, early trading in the Asian market on Thursday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 96.75. On Wednesday, the US dollar index rebounded slightly, returning to above the 97 mark during the session, but then part of the gains were retold and finally closed up 0.13% to 96.77; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.284%, and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.797%. The weaker than expected "small non-farm" has sparked hope that the Fed will cut interest rates earlier. Spot gold broke through the $3350 mark during the US session and finally closed up 0.55%, closing at $3357.15/ounce; spot silver finally closed up 1.46%, at $36.54/ounce. As Iran suspended cooperation with the United Nations nuclear monitoring agency, the United States and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, and the two oils rose by 3% during the day. WTI crude oil began to rise during the European session and returned to above $66 in the US session, and finally closed up 2.82% to $66.62 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 2.7% to $68.73 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 96.75. Although the dollar was under pressure ahead of the release of key U.S. labor market data on Thursday and concerns about trade persisted, the dollar showed signs of recovery and made a meaningful rebound on Wednesday, riding from multi-year lows against other currencies. Technically, if the US dollar index rises above the 97.00 level, it will move towards the 50MA of 97.54.

Small non-agricultural markets were shocked in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly(图1)

Euro: As of press time, Euro/USD hovered around 1.1799. ADP announced on Wednesday that private employment fell in June, the first decline in two years. Although the dollar initially weakened, it recovered some lost ground and dragged Euro/USD back below 1.1800 as traders prepared to release the latest employment data. Technically, if Euro/USD successfully closed above the 1.1800 level, it would go to the next resistance level, which is in the 1.1895–1.1910 range.

Small non-agricultural markets were shocked in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly(图2)

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3649. GBP/USD plummeted on Wednesday, and GBP/USD fell sharply, falling below the 1.3700 mark, driven by a sharp rise in UK bond yields. Intraday bidding actions managed to scrape off the worst low, but as GBP and USD www.vifu.netpeted to bottom, GBP price trends are still ready to fall further. Technically, GBP/USD is trying to close below support at 1.3620–1.3640. If GBP/USD successfully closes below 1.3620, it will move to the next support at 1.3500–1.3520.

Small non-agricultural markets were shocked in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly(图3)

Gold and crude oil market trend analysis

1)Gold market trend analysis

Gold trading around 3349.75 on Thursday. As traders prepare for the release of the latest non-farm employment (NFP) data in the United States (US), gold prices climbed cautiously during the North American period, which may be crucial to the interest rate path set by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The latest employment report disclosed by ADP shows that www.vifu.netpanies will stop hiring instead of leaving employees when adapting to the current economic environment. News of Microsoft's layoffs of 9,000 employees paint a bleak outlook for the labor market outlook.

Small non-agricultural markets were shocked in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly(图4)

Technical: Gold price upside bias remains, and traders will break through this week's peak of $3358, clearing the way for testing the dollar mark. As depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), the momentum remains bullish. Therefore, the path with the least resistance tends to higher prices. If gold climbs above $3400, it is expected to test $3450 with an all-time high (ATH) of $3500. Conversely, if gold falls below the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) $3320, the first support will be $3300. Breakthroughs will expose the swing low of $3246 on June 30.

2) Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis

WeeklyIn the four Asian sessions, crude oil trading is around 66.37. The U.S. Energy www.vifu.netrmation Administration (EIA) weekly report released Wednesday showed crude oil inventories increased by 3.845 million barrels. The latest report was previously expected to show a 2 million barrel reduction. WTI crude oil has expanded its gains despite eases in supply concerns. The latest recovery began on Tuesday after a 12% decline last week.

Small non-agricultural markets were shocked in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly(图5)

Technical: The relative strength index (RSI) hovers around 48, indicating a lack of directional beliefs. Meanwhile, the www.vifu.netmodity Channel Index (CCI) showed a mild bearish momentum around -43, without entering the oversold area. Continuous breakthroughs above $67.08 (50% retracement level) may open the door to recovery. If the price holds above the key support level and breaks above the $67.08 to rise above the $70 psychological level, a surge in bullish momentum could pave the way for the 78.6% Fibonacci level $74.11.

Forex market trading reminder on July 3, 2025

①09:45 China's June Caixin Service Industry PMI

②14:30 Switzerland's June CPI monthly rate

③15:00 Ministry of www.vifu.netmerce held a regular press conference

④15:50 France's June service industry PMI final value

⑤15:55 Germany's June service industry PMI final value

>⑥16:00Eurozone's final service industry PMI in June

⑦16:30Eurozone's final service industry PMI in June

⑧19:30European Central Bank released minutes of June monetary policy meeting

⑨20:30U.S. unemployment rate in June

⑩20:30U.S. non-farm employment population after the June seasonal adjustment

20:30Number of initial unemployment claims in the week from the United States to June 28

20:30 >

20:30 The average annual rate of hourly wages per hour in June

20:30 The average monthly rate of hourly wages per hour in June

20:30 The U.S. May trade account

21:45 The U.S. Global Services PMI final value

22:00 The U.S. June ISM non-manufacturing PMI

22:00 The U.S. May factory orders monthly rate

22: 30 EIA natural gas inventories in the week from the United States to June 27

23:00 Fed Bostic delivered a speech on monetary policy. The next day, 01:00, the total number of oil drilling rigs in the week from the United States to July 4

The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Review]: Small non-agricultural market "shocked" the market in June, and the US dollar index rebounded slightly". It was carefully www.vifu.netpiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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