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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: Focus on non-farm data, gold prices benefit from the upset boost of APD data. The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier. Hope the United States and Vietnam reach a trade agreement." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (July 3, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,355/ounce, and gold prices rose on Wednesday, because weaker than expected employment data triggered hope that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates earlier than market expectations. At the same time, investors are also waiting for the upcoming non-farm employment report to find further clues about monetary policy; U.S. crude oil trading was around $67.30/barrel, and U.S. oil rose more than 3% on Wednesday, after Iran suspended cooperation with the United Nations nuclear supervisory agency, the United States and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, but the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories has limited oil prices to a certain extent.
The European Central Bank released the minutes of the June monetary policy meeting and the Federal Reserve Bostic delivered a speech on US monetary policy.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly, but it was still only 1.18% lower than the closing record high set on December 4. Wall Street stocks have hit new highs in recent weeks, reflecting fluctuations in trading and strong risk appetite among investors amid inflation, deficits and policy uncertainties.
Powered by Nvidia, Apple and Tesla, the Nasdaq Index set a record just set on June 30. Investors will now focus on Thursday’s non-farm jobs report to see when the Fed may reduce borrowing costs.
ClearsteadAdvisorsLLCSenior managing director Jim Awad said the economy was weakening, "It was a mixed situation, and jobs were softer and prompted the Fed to lower interest rates would be a good thing, but if it was too weak, it would have a negative impact on economic growth and profits."
Trump's massive tax and spending bill has been passed in the Senate and submitted to the House of Representatives, which could be finalized. Nonpartisan analysts said the bill would increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade.
The market fell for a while, and data showed that private jobs in the United States unexpectedly decreased in June, and the increase in jobs in May was revised down. This indicator is not important. But the market turned to rising before noon, with the United States and Vietnam reaching a trade agreement, and the United States will impose a 20% tariff on many Vietnam's exports.
The Trump administration has hinted that a deal with India will also be reached soon, but said other countries may not be ready by July 9.
The S&P 500 rose 0.47% to 6227.42 points. The Nasdaq rose 0.94% to 20393.13 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Index fell 0.02% to 44484.42 points. On the New York Stock Exchange, 358 stocks hit new highs and 41 stocks hit new lows.
Tesla rose 5%, rebounding after a decline at the beginning of the week, even as the electric vehicle maker reported a sharp drop in second-quarter delivery volumes. Some traders say these numbers are a little stronger than analysts’ pessimistic predictions. Tesla has fallen by more than 20% this year.
Investors are focusing on Thursday's more www.vifu.netprehensive non-farm employment report, which was released a day earlier than usual, and the market will be closed on the July 4 Independence Day holiday. A Reuters interview with economists showed that U.S. employment growth is expected to slow down in June, with unemployment rising slightly to 4.3%. Gold prices rose Wednesday as weaker than expected employment data sparked hope that the Fed would cut interest rates earlier than market expectations, while investors are also awaiting the upcoming non-farm jobs report for further clues about monetary policy.
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3348.60 an ounce. The settlement price of US gold futures rose 0.3% to $3,359.7.
Independent metals trader TaiWong said: "ADP private jobs fell by 33,000, the first time that www.vifu.net job losses have been seen since early 2023, which has brought a significant boost to gold prices."
Earlier on Wednesday, the ADP National Employment Report showed that private sector jobs in the U.S. fell for the first time in more than two years in June, suggesting that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as September.
Federal Chairman Powell reiterated on Tuesday that the Fed is patient with further interest rate cuts. But he did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut at this month's meeting and said it all depends on subsequent data.
This raises the importance of the monthly non-farm employment report released on Thursday, and the market willGet a deeper understanding of the health of the labor market through this report. "If we get a much stronger-than-expected job report, it would be bad news, as the Fed may not be able to cut interest rates as it hopes," said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at KitcoMetals. "Spot silver rose 1.2% to $36.49 per ounce, platinum jumped 4.6% to $1,413.40, while palladium rose nearly 5.2% to $1,157.09. Oil market
Oil prices rose 3% on Wednesday after Iran suspended cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog and the United States and Vietnam reached a trade agreement, but the unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories has limited oil prices to a certain extent.
Brent crude oil closed up 3% to $69.11 a barrel; U.S. crude oil closed up 3.1% to $67.45 a barrel. Brent crude oil prices have been fluctuating between the highs of $69.21 per barrel and the lows of $66.34 per barrel since June 25, as concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East weakened after Iran and Israel reached a ceasefire.
Iran has enacted a law that stipulates that any future inspections of Iran's nuclear sites by the International Atomic Energy Agency must be approved by Tehran's Supreme National Security Council. Iran accused the agency of being on the side of Western countries, providing justification for Israel's air strikes. "The market is pricing some of the geopolitical risk premiums brought about by Iran's actions on the IAEA," said Giovanni Staunovo, www.vifu.netmodity analyst at UBS Group. "But it has something to do with sentiment and oil will not be disturbed. "
After U.S. President Trump and Vietnamese state media said that after last-minute negotiations, the United States and Vietnam reached a trade deal to impose a 20% tariff on many exports in the Southeast Asian country.
The U.S. Energy www.vifu.netrmation Administration (EIA) said that domestic crude oil inventories rose by 3.8 million barrels last week to 419 million barrels. A Reuters survey showed that analysts expected inventory to drop by 1.8 million barrels. Gasoline demand fell to 8.6 million barrels a day, raising concerns about peak summer driving consumption, and since then, oil prices have shrunk earlier.
At the same time, Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at PhillipNova, said the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia, plans to increase supply have appeared to have been priced and are unlikely to catch the market off guard again in the near term.
Four sources at OPEC+ told Reuters last week that the organization plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day at its July 6 meeting, similar to the increase achieved in May, June and July.
Traders also adjusted positions before the U.S. Department of Labor released its June employment report and July 4 holiday on Thursday. The dollar fell earlier, but regained momentum after the ADP National Employment Report was released. The report shows that private jobs in the United States fell for the first time in more than two years in June, suggesting that the Fed may cut interest rates as early as September.
President Trump's massive tax cuts and spending bill was passed in the U.S. Senate at its weakest advantage, and it is expected to increase U.S. debt by $3.3 trillion. Currently, the bill returns to the House of Representatives for a final vote.
Trump announced that Vietnam has reached a trade deal with the United States to push for lowering previously planned tariffs, which could prompt other countries to reach similar tariff agreements before the end of the July 9 tariff moratorium.
Steve Englander, head of global G10 foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered Bank, said, "I think the logic of the market is that if no country agrees to reach an agreement, the United States will face pressure, which is not good for the dollar, because it will lead to adjustments to everything, including fiscal bills, even if the tariffs are not formally written in the bill, it will be taken into consideration. But if a country reaches a solution, those countries that have not reached will be in trouble. This overall is beneficial to risk appetite, because you feel at ease with the conclusion of a (trade) agreement."
The dollar rose 0.15% against the yen to 143.635 yen, ending the two consecutive trading days of decline. The dollar rose 0.06% against the Swiss franc to 0.79,150, ending its seven consecutive trading days of decline.
BannockburnGlobalForexLLC chief market strategist Marc Chandler said: "It is no coincidence that the dollar rebounded against the G10 currency, as US interest rates rose by nearly 20 basis points at the same time."
UK Treasury bonds suffered its worst sell-off since October 2022, the day after the British government drastically reduced the scale of welfare cuts and speculation about the future of the Chancellor of the UK. The pound fell 0.79% against the US dollar to $1.3634, falling to a weekly low, and the trend will end the two consecutive trading days of gains.
The euro fell 0.08% against the US dollar to $1.179,725, but rose 0.9% against the pound.
Eurozone inflation rose slightly to the ECB's 2% target last month, confirming that the era of price out of control is over, which could prompt policymakers to turn their attention to tariff-related volatility.
The US dollar index rose 0.154% to 96.786, ending its nine consecutive trading days of decline. Draged by trade uncertainty, the U.S. dollar index experienced its worst first-half performance since the 1970s and is still at its lowest level in several years.
U.S. two-year Treasury yields rose 1.2 basis points to 3.789%, reversing an earlier declineStability. The Canadian dollar rose 0.35% against the US dollar to 1.36 CAD.
U.S. Congressmen and experts questioned the Trump administration's decision to suspend the provision of some air defense weapons to Ukraine, believing that this move may delay the end of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. They refuted the White House’s claim that “American arms inventory is in urgent need.” Many people said that Ukraine's current urgently needed weapons are not urgently needed in other regions, so there is no need to stop delivering them immediately. "We should indeed replenish stocks, but the solution should be to speed up production, not cut off supplies to Ukraine," said Sen. Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut. A European official said a NATO allies had urged the U.S. Department of Defense to reconsider the decision. John Herbst, director of the Eurasian Center of the Atlantic Council, said the U.S. move contradicts a series of tough actions taken by Trump and his team last week. He refers to the agreement between countries during the NATO summit to increase defense-related spending to 5% of GDP.
According to CCTV News, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who attended an event in Athens, Greece on July 2 local time, said that if the tariffs of the Trump administration in the United States cause US citizens to pay more for goods, Trump will also be affected. Merkel said the EU must unite and should not be afraid when Trump imposes more tariffs on the EU, but should fight back with its own tariffs. The EU must negotiate with the United States to resolve the tariff issue. U.S. President Trump has threatened that if the U.S.-EU trade negotiations do not make a breakthrough before July 9, he will impose a 50% tariff on EU goods. Currently, the United States imposes a 50% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products, a 25% tariff on the automotive sector, and a 10% benchmark tariff on almost all other www.vifu.netmodities.
According to Politico, six officials said, European www.vifu.netmission President von der Leyen will face a vote of no confidence in the European Parliament next Thursday. Von der Leyen will participate in a MP debate on his leadership in Strasbourg next Monday, the first move that the www.vifu.netmittee chair has faced in more than a decade. At this stage, the vote is mostly symbolic, and most political groups have said they will vote against the motion of distrust. But this highlights the growing anger of Europeans towards her after a series of controversial actions and scandals. If the motion of distrust is passed, it will lead to the resignation of the entire European www.vifu.netmission and trigger a www.vifu.netplex process for the appointment of 27 new EU www.vifu.netmissioners. Romanian right-wing MP Gheorghe Piperea collected enough signatures last week to express indignation at von der Leyen's secret text messages with the CEO of pharmaceutical giant Pfizer in 2021, and then filed a motion to condemn. These texts are most severe in the COVID-19 pandemicWhen it www.vifu.netes to the discussion on delivering vaccines to Europe.
On the evening of July 2 local time, Iran held an event in the city center of the capital Tehran to www.vifu.netmemorate the Iranian personnel who died in this round of Iranian conflict. Iranian President Pezekichiyan and other high-level officials attended the event. Iran's chief of staff, Mousavi, said that if the enemy launches another invasion of Iran, Iran will respond more devastatingly. Iranian Parliament Speaker Kalibav said Israel relies entirely on the support of the United States and Western countries, and Israel cannot survive without their support. Kalibaf said that the United States not only supports Israel, but also launched direct attacks on Iran, but Iran's decisive and powerful counterattack forced them to retreat in the shortest time.
U.S. President Trump said on the 2nd that the United States has reached a trade agreement with Vietnam. Trump posted on social media on the same day that he had reached a trade agreement with Vietnam, "details were announced later!" Trump then posted that all Vietnamese exports to the United States would face at least 20% tariffs and "completely open the market" to the United States. The Vietnamese News Agency reported later that day that the www.vifu.netmunist Party of Vietnam, General Secretary Su Lin, spoke with Trump on phone on issues such as Vietnam-US relations and tariff negotiations between the two countries. Trump stressed that the United States will continue to cooperate with Vietnam to resolve issues affecting bilateral trade. Su Lin suggested that the US recognize Vietnam's market economy as soon as possible and lift the US export restrictions on some high-tech products to Vietnam.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott? Becent said on Tuesday that he believes the Fed may cut interest rates in September or “early” as tariffs imposed by President Trump have only triggered moderate inflation so far. "I think the key to the (rate cut) is that tariffs do not trigger inflation. If the Fed follows this standard, I think they may act earlier than September, and of course it will definitely drop before September," Becent added. "I guess this 'tariff disorder syndrome' has even affected the Fed." As his www.vifu.netments on Fox News' Ingraham's Perspective, his boss, President Trump, is increasing pressure on the Fed and Chairman Powell to cut interest rates by as much as 3 percentage points.
FHFA Director Bill Pulte claimed that he asked Capitol Hill to investigate Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's political tendencies. and investigated his fraudulent testimony in the Senate, which was enough to get him removed from office. Powell was suspected of deceiving Capitol Hill and suspected of dereliction of duty. US President Trump has repeatedly attacked Powell's attitude of refusing his interest rate cut, and Pulte has also recently asked Powell to cut interest rates one after another.
On July 2, it was learned from Sinopec that my country's first full-sea water environment floating photovoltaic project to achieve industrial operation was www.vifu.netpleted and put into use in Qingdao, Shandong, and has an important demonstration effect on the promotion of floating photovoltaic in coastal and shallow sea areas. The Qingdao Refining and Chemical's all-sea water environment floating photovoltaic project, which is put into use, covers an area of about 60,000 square meters and has an installed capacity of 7.5 megawatts. The project can generate 16.7 million kilowatt-hours of green electricity each year. The project innovatively adopts a floating photovoltaic structure, which is designed to lift and lower the photovoltaic panels simultaneously with the tide, shortening the distance between the plate body and the water surface, which is only about 1/10 of the traditional pile-based structure. With the help of seawater heat dissipation to the maximum extent, the power generation efficiency is improved by 5% to 8% through the cooling effect.
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