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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Platform]: The Federal Reserve is not that eagle to attack the US dollar". Hope this helps you! The original content is as follows:
On December 12, the US dollar remains on the defensive and will fall for the third consecutive week on Friday. The prospect of a U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut next year continues to weaken the dollar's performance relative to its six major currency rivals. Traders will look to the Federal Reserve's speech later on Friday for more clues on the direction of U.S. interest rates. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsby are scheduled to speak.
Data released by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) on Thursday showed that the number of Americans applying for new unemployment benefits increased to 236,000 in the week ended December 6. The figure was above the consensus of 220,000 and up from 192,000 the previous week (revised from 191,000). This reading is the largest increase since mid-July 2021.
The U.S. central bank decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) in a split vote at its December policy meeting on Wednesday, placing interest rates in a range of 3.50% to 3.75%. Two Fed officials voted to keep rates on hold, while Stephen Millan, whom Trump appointed in September, voted for a deeper cut. The Fed's economic forecasts point to a rate cut next year, although new data could change that.
According to the CMEFedWatch tool, the market currently expects the probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates stable next month to be close to 75%, while the probability before cutting interest rates was 70%.
After hitting a new high of 0.6686 on Wednesday, AUD/USD is trading within a narrow range of mid-0.6600. The pair struggled to make headway following the release of lower-than-expected Australian employment data for November.
USD/JPY recovered some lost ground above 155.75 as the prevailing risk environment weakened the Japanese yen (JPY). The Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision will be in focus next week. According to a Reuters poll conducted from December 2 to 9, 90% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to increase short-term interest rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at the December meeting. That's a significant increase from last month's Reuters poll (only 53%).
EUR/USD held around 1.1740 after hitting an eight-week high on Thursday. The final data for Germany's unified consumer price index was in line with market consensus, rising 2.6% year-on-year in November, unchanged from the previous 2.6%.
GBP/USD fell slightly to around 1.3375 as the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report weakened. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Friday that UK GDP unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in October, www.vifu.netpared with the 0.1% decline reported in September. Consensus expected growth of 0.1% over the same period.
Brent crude oil rose 0.77% to $61.75 per barrel. Market focus is on progress in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, after oil prices rose on news that the United States had seized an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. The United States announced a new round of sanctions against Venezuela on Thursday, imposing restrictions on three nephews of President Maduro's wife, as well as six crude oil tankers and shipping www.vifu.netpanies related to them.
Gold continued its upward trend for the fourth consecutive day, breaking through the $4,300 mark, setting a new high since October 21 in the first half of the European trading day on Friday. ; Silver fell from its all-time high, last trading at $63.77.
Euro: The rebound of EUR/USD from 1.1467 is in progress, and the intraday bias remains upward. Current developments indicate that the decline from 1.1917 is www.vifu.netpleted and corrected to 1.1467. Expect to see a further rebound towards a retest of the 1.1917 high. For now, as long as the 1.1614 support level holds, risks will remain elevated to prevent a pullback.
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